Honestly, if she goes Nightmare, it's going to come down to her just not maintaining her soulgem. Like, emotionally she's probably doing fine, but she's not gonna go nightmare hunting unless something makes her. She's deliberately trying to not use magic so much, but, well, it's still going to drain little by little. She might be able to keep afloat for a little while just based on the odd nightmare she wanders into or the low magic usage on her part, but eventually, yeah, Nightmare's coming.